RBI Monetary Policy: There may be a shock of increase in EMI on Wednesday, what is the estimate of experts
Key rates may increase on Wednesday
A Reuters survey has estimated that by October, key rates will reach beyond 5 percent. At the same time, by the end of this year, the rates can reach 5.5 percent.
The Reserve Bank will announce the results of its policy review for the month of June on Wednesday. If experts are to be believed, then there is every possibility that tomorrow once again people may have to bear the shock of increase in their EMI. Actually the Reserve Bank (RBI) had already indicated that inflation (inflation) will maintain its emphasis on controlling. Which means that they will go ahead with the measures to get the extra cash out of the system. One of which is to increase rates. However, experts are not unanimous on how much increase in rates can be done tomorrow. The recent reduction in petrol and diesel prices is expected to have a slight impact on inflation. At the same time, the industry is also raising concerns about the growth. In such a situation, experts believe that the increase in rates will not be faster than the previous increase. Earlier in May, the Reserve Bank had done repo (Repo) had an unexpected increase of 0.4 percent in rates. This decision was taken between two policy reviews.
Moderate hike in repo rates expected
The Governor of the Reserve Bank had recently said in an interview that there will be some increase in the repo rates, but I will not be able to tell how much it will be. At the same time, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda, said on the MPC meeting that this review is important in terms of the central bank’s views on growth and inflation. He said that there will be an increase in the repo rate, but it will not exceed 0.25-0.35 per cent, as it was indicated in the remarks of the meeting held in May that the MPC was not in favor of a big hike in the repo rate. On the other hand, BofA Securities said in a report that it expects the RBI to increase the repo rate by 0.40 percent in June and 0.35 percent in August. On the other hand, Dhruv Agarwal, Group Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Housing.com, PropTiger.com and Makaan.com, said that the Reserve Bank is likely to increase the repo rate once again to control inflation. He also added that the rate hike should be gradual, as it may affect the growth of the real estate sector.
Growth forecast for the whole year
At the same time, experts have estimated that a gradual increase in rates can be seen throughout the year. SBI economists believe that to bring inflation under control, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may increase the policy repo rate by 0.75 percent by August, thus reaching the level of 5.15 percent before the epidemic. Will go That is, economists are assuming that there is every possibility of an increase in rates in the June review. At the same time, Axis Bank has given an estimate that by the end of this financial year, the repo rate may increase to 5.75 percent. Axis Bank has expressed the possibility that the rate hike will be slow. That is, there is a possibility that a part of this increase can be seen in June. At the same time, in a survey conducted by Reuters, it has been estimated that in the next 4 policy reviews, the Reserve Bank may increase the repo rates by 100 basis points or one percent. Of the 47 polled, 41 clearly said that by the next quarter, the repo rates can reach 5.15 percent or above. At the same time, rates have been estimated to reach 5.5 percent by the end of the year.